Supplementary material for paper: "Dissociating Certainty and Uncertainty]{Dissociating Certainty and Uncertainty for Passengers of Autonomous Vehicles: Evidence Against a Perfect Inverse Relationship"

Engineering notes

Key topics: autonomous driving, autonomous vehicle, lane change. See the paper for implementation details and experimental results.

Chinese explanation / 中文解读

中文解读待补充：本站会优先为端到端自动驾驶、BEV感知、3D目标检测、轨迹预测、路径规划、LiDAR感知等高价值论文补充中文说明。

Original abstract

<strong>Abstract</strong>This study examines whether psychological uncertainty can be understood as the simple inverse of certainty in the context of fully automated vehicle (AV) passengers. Using a large-scale crowd-sourced experiment (N = 1,437 participants from 84 countries), participants viewed 3D simulated driving scenarios and rated their perceived certainty and uncertainty regarding an upcoming lane change. A linear mixed-effects model was used to analyze the relationship while accounting for repeated measures and individual variability. Results show a significant negative relationship between certainty and uncertainty (β = -0.320, p &lt; .01), indicating that higher certainty is associated with lower uncertainty. However, the magnitude of this relationship deviates strongly from a perfect inverse (β = -1), demonstrating that the constructs are not simply opposites. Instead, certainty and uncertainty appear to function as partially independent psychological dimensions that can coexist. These findings challenge the common assumption underlying bipolar measurement scales and support the use of unipolar approaches when assessing subjective uncertainty. The results have implications for human–automation interaction design, suggesting that reducing uncertainty does not necessarily guarantee increased certainty. A more nuanced understanding of both constructs can contribute to improving trust, user experience, and acceptance of automated driving systems.

Links and sources

Comments