Spring Mediterranean sea surface temperature as a precursor for summer heat in Central-Eastern China

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Key topics: autonomous driving. See the paper for implementation details and experimental results.

Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

Abstract Summer heatwaves over Central-Eastern China (CEC) have intensified dramatically, yet their seasonal predictability via upstream mid-latitude drivers remains underappreciated. Here, we demonstrate that the spring Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature (sMedSST) is a robust and independent precursor for the interannual variability of both summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) and extreme heatwave frequency (TX90p) over CEC. Partial correlation analysis confirms that this sMedSST signal operates autonomously from major tropical Pacific and North Atlantic climate modes. Mechanistically, the cross-seasonal thermal memory of sMedSST excites a stationary Rossby wave train along the mid-latitude westerly jet waveguide via upper-tropospheric absolute vorticity advection by anomalous divergent winds. Upon reaching East Asia, the wave train induces an upper-level anticyclonic anomaly that forces easterly anomalies over the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau. Governed by the isentropic gliding mechanism, these easterlies slide downward, driving widespread subsidence over CEC. This dynamic descent suppresses cloud formation and precipitation, enhancing downward net shortwave radiation while simultaneously desiccating soil moisture and weakening evaporative cooling, which ultimately triggers severe heatwave outbreaks. This cross-continental teleconnection is causally verified using the topography-configured Isca general circulation model. Furthermore, an sMedSST-based multiple linear regression model yields exceptional seasonal forecasting skill, providing advanced guidance for mitigating East Asian climate risks.

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