Changes in ecosystem carbon sequestration and their driving mechanisms in ethnic autonomous and non-autonomous areas of Western China

Engineering notes

The results showed that ecosystem carbon sequestration in western China increased significantly during 2001–2025, with TCS rising from 1.40 to 1.60 PgC·yr -1 and NPP increasing from 440 to 500 gC·m -2 ·yr -1 .

Chinese explanation / 中文解读

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Original abstract

Understanding ecosystem carbon sequestration change and its environmental drivers is fundamental for revealing regional carbon sink patterns and ecosystem response processes, yet differences in carbon sequestration dynamics between ethnic autonomous and non-autonomous areas in western China remain insufficiently explored. Here, these two regional types were regarded as socio-ecological units with distinct environmental backgrounds, ecosystem compositions, land-use structures, and governance contexts. Using total carbon sink (TCS), net primary productivity (NPP), and multi-source data from 2001 to 2025, we combined trend analysis, ridge regression, and interpretable machine learning to investigate differences in carbon sequestration change, climate sensitivity, and driving mechanisms between the two regional types. The results showed that ecosystem carbon sequestration in western China increased significantly during 2001–2025, with TCS rising from 1.40 to 1.60 PgC·yr -1 and NPP increasing from 440 to 500 gC·m -2 ·yr -1 . Ethnic autonomous areas constituted the dominant component of the regional carbon sink, with TCS increasing from 1.14 to 1.27 PgC·yr -1 and NPP increasing from 420 to 480 gC·m -2 ·yr -1 , contributing 78.55% of the total NPP and 106.29% to interannual variability. In contrast, non-autonomous areas had lower total carbon sink values but higher mean NPP and steeper growth rates, with TCS increasing from 0.25 to 0.33 PgC·yr -1 and NPP increasing from 550 to 650 gC·m -2 ·yr -1 . NPP in ethnic autonomous areas was more sensitive to precipitation and soil moisture, indicating stronger water limitation, whereas non-autonomous areas showed a more pronounced increase in temperature sensitivity and greater weakening in sensitivity to VPD and radiation. Analysis of driving mechanisms further revealed a climate-dominated pattern in ethnic autonomous areas and a more pronounced pattern of joint soil–climate control in non-autonomous areas. These differences reflect combined effects of administrative characteristics, environmental gradients, ecosystem composition, and land-use intensity, rather than administrative status alone.

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